STRASBOURG — The European Parliament will decide on Thursday whether to grant Ursula von der Leyen a second term as European Commission president in a secret ballot vote.
If von der Leyen does not secure at least 361 votes (out of 720) in favor of a second five-year term, it would trigger an unprecedented political crisis by leaving the most powerful job in the EU unfilled at a time of instability in Europe and further afield.
Von der Leyen’s supporters say the incumbent is a safe, stable pair of hands, which is exactly what Europe needs as Russia’s war in Ukraine bleeds into an uncertain, indeterminate future, Hungary’s six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the EU has gone rogue, and with a potential second Donald Trump presidency in November.
Ahead of the vote, a wide range of European lawmakers and officials seemed confident that von der Leyen would get the majority needed, while stressing that anything can happen in a secret ballot.
“I am sure she will pass, I am sure the votes are there,” said MEP Sigfried Muresan, who is von der Leyen’s center-right European People’s Party group vice-chair told POLITICO, arguing that one of the key reasons to vote for her is that “electing a president of the commission less than two months after the election is a sign of stability, a sign of continuity.”
A person close to von der Leyen, granted anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the subject, said they were “cautiously optimistic.”
During her first term, von der Leyen became known as Europe’s crisis-manager-in chief, steering the bloc through the pandemic, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent energy crisis. But her centralized decision-making style has alienated officials across the bloc, while her partial backtracking on some of her climate promises is worrying green lawmakers.
Just over 24 hours before the vote, a top EU court ruled she was not transparent enough with the public about Covid-19 vaccine contracts. It’s only one of the pending legal cases around Pfizergate, the scandal involving von der Leyen’s deleted texts with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla, allegedly about coronavirus vaccine negotiations.
‘She simply has to pass’
If von der Leyen fails to secure the support in this one-shot vote, national leaders must return to the drawing board and find an alternative option within a month, leaving the EU institution in political deadlock as hard-right and far-right parties rise in influence across the Continent. The new European Commission would not be installed until the start of next year, instead of the November 1 planned start date for von der Leyen.
“She simply has to pass,” said one senior EU official, who was granted anonymity to speak freely about the vote, capturing the mood in Brussels and Strasbourg ahead of the vote.
Before the vote, the head of the EU’s executive arm will address the new European Parliament in Strasbourg, laying out her anticipated policy priorities with the aim of convincing as many lawmakers as possible to back her.
After a two-hour break to enable last-minute political haggling, European lawmakers will then begin the voting procedure at 1 p.m., with the results set to be announced at about 2:45 p.m.
In June’s election, von der Leyen’s own EPP, the Socialists, and Renew, part of her governing coalition, secured 401 seats. While von der Leyen is expecting the three centrist groups that supported her back in 2019 to vote for her again, some members of her current coalition have announced they won’t vote for her even with the secret nature of the vote.
Strategically, von der Leyen needs a cushion, as experts say approximately 10 percent of those who are expected to support her might not do so, which could result in a razor-thin margin. The European Parliament has never voted down a candidate for European Commission President since the Treaty of Lisbon of 2009 gave the Parliament more power over the future head of the European Commission.
In the days since the EU election, von der Leyen has courted groups outside her coalition, including the left-leaning Greens, who see their chance to influence the next European Commission by getting it to avoid backtracking on the EU’s climate commitments.
The Greens will meet Thursday morning after von der Leyen’s speech to choose their group’s stance on her potential second term, a spokesperson for the Greens said.
“I think she has surprised many of us throughout the years fighting for the Green Deal,” said Green MEP Alice Bah Kuhnke. “If we will vote yes to Ursula, we will not promise that we will vote for everything in the next five years. It depends if she follows what she has put in her program.”
Meanwhile, the hard-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), the political family of Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, is divided on supporting von der Leyen.
A lot will still depend on von der Leyen’s speech Thursday morning, said one parliamentary official. “She has made individual promises and in separate group meetings. Let’s see how she manages to pour that into one coherent text.”