It was always going to be a risky relationship.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has spent a year courting right-wing Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni as a potential partner on the European stage.
But in the last week, it has blown up in her face.
On the eve of the European election, von der Leyen’s center-left coalition partners in Brussels are threatening to block her from a second term running the EU’s executive if she cooperates with Meloni, who they consider to be too far to the right. Right on cue, French far-right leader Marine Le Pen actively courted Meloni for an alliance this week.
“In trying to create a bridge with the hardline right, von der Leyen exposed herself to criticism from the center-left,” said Leo Goretti of the Institute of International Affairs think tank in Rome.
“It gave her a political profile, which might not be appealing to her allies. As we say in Rome, he who enters the conclave as a pope, exits as a cardinal.”
The European Commission chief has spent a lot of time in Italy. Von der Leyen and Meloni have surveilled an entry point for migrants to Italy — and the bloc offered condolences to flood-ridden communities and joined in when Meloni discussed her expanded political strategy on the African continent in Rome.
“It was a classic example of keeping your friends close and your potential enemies closer,” said one EU official, who, like others quoted in this piece, was granted anonymity as they were not allowed to speak freely.
The connection between Meloni and von der Leyen — who in recent days have appeared to be more like frenemies than friends — looks to be fraying, so much so that it has become a political liability for von der Leyen in her pursuit of a second term as European Commission chief and for her party’s aim to maintain the power balance of the next Parliament — and the European Union. For now, the two are engaged in a perilous dance, trying to keep up appearances and at the same time not offend those in their own ranks.
That’s ironic, given the perceived closeness was a purely political strategy, according to political insiders.
For von der Leyen, the stakes are particularly high.
“It’s about survival, while for Meloni it’s not vital. She’ll still be prime minister afterwards,” said Goretti.
An unlikely connection
From the outside, it was an unlikely friendship.
Von der Leyen, a former German defense minister, has embraced her role as EU chief executive since 2019 as a bastion of mainstream conservatism, touting her vision (and a deal) for a climate-neutral continent, managing a cost of living crisis, working through a pandemic, and heralding pan-European support for Ukraine through the Russian invasion.
Since becoming prime minister in 2022, Meloni has led a right-wing Italian government, pushed to impose more influence over the state broadcaster, and championed a crackdown on migration.
In the beginning, the potential payoff of being close to Meloni seemed like a big one for the European Commission chief.
While the center-right European People’s Party, home to von der Leyen’s German Christian Democrats, is the largest group in the European Parliament, the groups to its right are poised to surge after the election, according to polls.
The implications were win-win: von der Leyen would have a backup if her current coalition of socialists and liberals didn’t get enough votes in the European Parliament election, and Meloni could strategically throw herself and her right-wing group of European Conservatives and Reformists into the next coalition mix.
Politically toxic
Von der Leyen has not ruled out working with the ECR, which includes Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, after the election. ECR’s members of the European Parliament are generally staunchly Euroskeptic, standing further to the right than von der Leyen’s centrists.
The socialists and the liberals, who are part of von der Leyen’s current coalition in Brussels, are increasingly attacking von der Leyen on this potential cooperation as she eyes a second term in charge. So much so that they’ve threatened to torpedo a second term if she chooses to cooperate with Meloni or the ECR.
Von der Leyen also made herself vulnerable to criticism from her own party.
When von der Leyen visited Rome for a campaign stop earlier this month, even Italy’s Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, who is vice president of her EPP, avoided public appearances with her. Within the ranks of Italy’s Christian democrats there were fierce discussions about distancing themselves from von der Leyen, with one senator describing her as a “lame horse.”
Meloni, on the other hand, is trying to keep her base happy without attacking von der Leyen.
During an event organized by Spain’s far-right Vox party earlier this month, Meloni said “the outcome of the European elections could spell the end of unnatural and counterproductive majorities.” She did not name von der Leyen directly, though the reference was very much about the Commission chief’s coalition in Brussels.
After all, Meloni needs the Brussels powers that be.
Italy has the second highest public debt in Europe after Greece and its annual deficit exceeds the EU’s limit. This sets Rome up for a clash with the European Commission, as the EU’s new set of fiscal rules will force Brussels to punish countries with large deficits. According to the International Monetary Fund, Italy’s public debt will reach about 140 percent of GDP in 2024 and is expected to continue rising.
During this term, Rome also benefited from a good relationship with Brussels.
“For Meloni it was useful because the principal policies at international and European level, such as debt and immigration, all begin from the Commission and therefore she had every advantage in negotiating and meeting with her,” said Marco Valbruzzi at the University of Naples Federico II.
During the heated Italian EU election campaign, Italy’s far-right leader and Meloni’s coalition partner Matteo Salvini has been bashing Meloni for her close ties with von der Leyen. Yet the Italian prime minister is deliberately keeping her options open, including potential cooperation with Europe’s most prominent far-right leader, Le Pen.
Game over?
By showing their cards so early on in the campaign, von der Leyen and Meloni risk taking more blows than benefits out of the relationship.
The other European capitals, big and small, are watching the pair with increasing scrutiny, asking: Will Meloni really suddenly become the kingmaker of the next European top jobs carve-up and swing the EU policy to the right?
The EU, and especially its top jobs puzzle after the European election, has historically been led by the fabled Franco-German engine. But that engine has been sputtering in recent years, and the difficult personal relationship between French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz doesn’t help. It leaves a power vacuum that Meloni at times, for example on swinging the EU’s migration policy more to the right, has successfully filled. She has also been a key bridge figure in convincing Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán to sign up for the EU’s support of Ukraine.
But it doesn’t make Meloni the ultimate European kingmaker, four European diplomats and officials said. First, the EPP is set to remain the biggest political force in the European Parliament. Second, Russia’s full-scale invasion has turned the tables on the political weight of Eastern Europe. Europe’s eastern countries are increasingly putting their foot down on getting more political influence in Brussels, both in support for Ukraine and in future job portfolios.
The officials pointed, for example, to the revival of the so-called Weimar Triangle composed of Paris, Berlin and Warsaw since the return of the EPP’s Donald Tusk to the European Council table.
With all eyes on Meloni, the real dealmakers after the election may be found elsewhere, said another EU diplomat. “Everybody’s saying that Italy’s the kingmaker but Meloni’s strategy won’t matter in the end.”
Barbara Moens reported from Brussels. Hannah Roberts reported from Rome. Jacopo Barigazzi contributed reporting from Brussels and Clea Caulcutt contributed reporting from Paris.