BRUSSELS — For most NATO countries, the time has come for Romanian President Klaus Iohannis to call it quits after two months of jockeying for the alliance’s top job.
Behind the scenes, a number of EU officials and diplomats believe Iohannis is playing the long game and is using his NATO bid to position himself for another senior EU role.
Since announcing his bid in March, Iohannis only managed to get one country’s support in the group of 32 countries. And that’s Hungary, which threatened last week to opt out of certain NATO operations. Slovakia remains undecided, but all other 29 countries have shown support for the clear frontrunner, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte.
Still, that’s not good enough for Rutte, as he needs full backing from everyone in the alliance in order to succeed Jens Stoltenberg, who is due to step down in early October.
As NATO foreign affairs ministers meet in Prague on Thursday and Friday, the fear is that if Iohannis doesn’t back down soon, the search for NATO’s next secretary general risks becoming part of the backroom maneuvering to fill the EU’s top jobs after the June 6-9 European election.
Typically, the presidencies of the European Commission and the European Council, as well as the role of EU diplomatic chief are all up for grabs, with the EU’s 27 countries also seeking to get the Commission portfolios they desire.
Now, NATO chief is part of the mix.
“For the first time, NATO is part of the package. Officially it’s not, but unofficially it is,” said one EU official who, like the others quoted, was granted anonymity as they are not allowed to speak publicly on the issue.
Iohannis’ office rejected assertions that he was under pressure to leave the race. “There is no such pressure regarding the withdrawal of candidacy. This is the official response of the Presidential Administration,” his office said in an email to POLITICO.
The top job carve-up is always a complicated puzzle, balancing political affiliations, geography and gender. Even if Rutte gets the NATO job before EU leaders discuss the European top jobs, leaders will still have to take into account that a Dutch liberal man won, two EU diplomats said.
Iohannis has come to an understanding with key allies to quit the NATO race by early June, or one month before the big NATO Washington Summit, said two senior European officials granted anonymity to discuss sensitive discussions. Earlier this month Iohannis met U.S. President Joe Biden, who has already backed Rutte, in the White House.
Quitting the race ahead of the European top job race and before the NATO summit in July will give Iohannis some goodwill with Western allies, which he could cash in during the top job discussions. His second term as Romanian president ends in December.
Ticket to Brussels
Several scenarios for Iohannis are floating around Brussels. One option is a very long shot: If European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who is the overwhelming favorite, does not secure a second mandate, Iohannis has been mentioned as an alternative.
The Romanian leader hails from the European People’s Party (EPP), the EU’s most powerful political grouping, as does von der Leyen. Iohannis is also a German speaker with more than 10 years of experience as a head of state.
Romania is also a poster child in the EU when it comes to pushing back against Russian influence, supporting Ukraine and integrating into the EU, such as by formally joining the Schengen visa-free area.
Iohannis’ allies insist that his NATO bid is not merely a way to get an EU job, as he “firmly believes in the need for an Eastern European voice in this most important job for NATO at this juncture,” according to an official briefed on his thinking.
Another option being floated for Iohannis is that he becomes the EU’s defense commissioner. Von der Leyen has already indicated that it would be good to have someone from Eastern Europe for that portfolio, which does not currently exist but that she wants to create.
The most widely floated name for that job is Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski, but bearing in mind the surprises that come with any top job puzzle, the job could still go to Iohannis, two other EU officials said.