BRUSSELS — António Costa helms his first summit of the EU’s 27 leaders this week knowing his stock will never be this high again.
A rude awakening awaits almost immediately. He’ll have to navigate Europe’s response to Donald Trump’s return to the White House and years-long divisions over Russia and Ukraine — all while France and Germany, traditionally the engine that pushed European decision-making forward, are distracted and paralyzed.
“Leaders are starting to realize that we will have to make decisions that are inevitable, but also very uncomfortable,” one EU official said, granted anonymity to speak freely, like others in this story. “The info on Trump’s plans is dripping into several capitals.”
Costa, the 63-year-old former Portuguese prime minister, landed the job of president of the European Council following this summer’s European election thanks to his reputation for forging compromises away from the spotlight. That implied competence contrasts sharply with the failure of Costa’s predecessor, Charles Michel, to win respect from leaders who complained he didn’t even prepare meetings properly.
But while Costa chairs summits and looks to broker deals among leaders who may have incompatible priorities, he can only advance the EU’s agenda so far without the support of powerful national champions.
That’s why the faltering Franco-German dynamo is a problem. Paris is in political crisis, leaving President Emmanuel Macron weakened on his visits to Brussels. Berlin, too, is distracted by an upcoming early election — and given that Germany is Europe’s largest economy and still largely its paymaster, the bloc can’t decide anything money-related until a new government is in the saddle.
Meanwhile, Hungary’s Russia-friendly Prime Minister Viktor Orbán remains an obstacle to most decisions in support of Kyiv.
On Thursday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will discuss the state of Russia’s war on his country with European leaders, and is likely to plead yet again for more military and financial support.
“The situation in Ukraine will be at the forefront of our discussions,” Costa said in his letter to European leaders ahead of the summit.
Strategic discussions
Costa has already made his mark by changing some of the tortuous Brussels choreography. Not only has he shortened summits from two days to one — delighting European leaders and their envoys — but there is also more clarity on the agenda and the expected conclusions.
That allows leaders to conduct strategic discussions instead of focusing on long drafting sessions.
But Costa’s honeymoon could end quickly, one EU diplomat said.
As the second Trump presidency draws nigh, European leaders are keenly aware they must step up their military and financial support for Kyiv — but disagree on how to get there.
Despite the goodwill surrounding Costa and the imminent possible cratering of U.S. support for Ukraine, Brussels doesn’t appear poised to make concrete promises to Kyiv this week.
European leaders don’t want to anticipate what the new U.S. administration will decide on the matter, one senior EU official said.
“What can Europe do more if needed, autonomously, to support Ukraine?” will be one of the questions in focus, according to the official. “Hopefully this will be one of the questions answered with the meeting of the 27, certainly the beginning of an answer to that question.”
A next step will be an informal retreat of European leaders in early February, shortly after Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration.
Given the situation, some diplomats are quipping that Costa’s honeymoon period may end on Thursday, when leaders discuss the transatlantic relationship over lunch.
“We can already see the change with Costa, he has a whole series of methods which make him a guardian of unity rather than a political force,” another EU diplomat said.
But they also cautioned against immoderate expectations, citing the example of former European Council President Donald Tusk, now prime minister of Poland.
Even Tusk — “a huge personality” widely respected for the job he did between 2014 and 2019 — “didn’t leave a lasting legacy,” the diplomat said.
Clea Caulcutt reported from Paris.