BRUSSELS — Two conflicts will compete for the attention of EU leaders meeting for a summit this week. There is one — Ukraine — where they can make a difference, and another — Iran-Israel — where they can’t.
It seems paradoxical, then, that the Middle East — a theater of war where the U.S. is infinitely more influential than Europe — will probably consume more attention than Ukraine — an EU candidate country that is desperately pleading for more European assistance as the tide turns against it, and Russian forces pummel Kharkiv, its second city.
Still, the EU seems determined to go through the diplomatic motions of appearing to be a global power that might be able to sway notoriously stubborn Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
The 27 leaders will seek to persuade Israel not to trigger a full-blown Middle Eastern war by attacking Iran, will make a plea to avoid a greater conflagration in Lebanon, and some European countries will push for yet more sanctions on Iran.
According to a draft of the Council conclusions, they will call for “all parties to exercise utmost restraint and refrain from any action that may increase tensions in the region.” That will not have the Israelis or the Iranians quaking.
None of this carries weight with Netanyahu, who has shown little interest in ceasefire calls from either the EU or U.S. Ultimately, when it comes to the question of a direct attack on Iran, the decisive factor will be Washington, Israel’s main security guarantor, which has said it won’t support a direct assault on the Islamic Republic.
If any EU country has modest leverage it would be France, which joined the U.S. and U.K. in helping resist Iran’s barrage of 300 drones and missiles fired on Saturday. The advantage to Paris of being part of an anti-Iran coalition would be to try to hold back Israeli hawks, but there is no doubting that it’s the messaging from U.S. President Joe Biden that really matters.
The draft language on Lebanon is also loose: “The EU stands ready to work with all partners to avoid further escalation of tensions in the region, notably in Lebanon.” Israel has a long history of attacks into Lebanon to fight Hezbollah, Iran’s proxy, and there seems little prospect that it will row back because of European Council conclusions.
Similarly, EU moves toward more Iran sanctions would be symbolic, rather than game-changing. Decades of sanctions have done little to restrict the development of Iran’s highly successful ballistics program. Awash with petrodollars and cooperating with countries such as North Korea, Tehran has proved adept at beating Western embargoes.
“We are working on more sanctions against Iran, but have to be realistic about what we can achieve in the region,” said one EU diplomat.
So what about Europe’s war?
So why bother? Why try to exert influence in a region where the EU is not a military or political heavyweight — in the way that the U.S., Turkey or Saudi Arabia are — while the EU is still in disarray over how to supply sufficient aid and arms to Ukraine, the biggest country to lie completely within Europe?
To some of Ukraine’s closest allies, the West’s highly effective aerial defense of Israel over the weekend seemed to expose a double standard, asking why it wasn’t able to make the same military and financial commitments to Ukraine.
“During Iran’s attack against Israel, some Western countries contributed to protecting Israeli skies as an important act of solidarity,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis told POLITICO. “Kyiv keeps requesting the same type of protection from the same group of countries for more than two years now.”
Other Kyiv allies played up the positives, however.
Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told POLITICO the attack on Israel should help expose the links between authoritarian rogue states like Russia and Iran attacking democracies. That logic is also being played out in the U.S. where it is hoped the Iranian attack will unlock funds in Congress not just for Israel, but for Ukraine too.
“The fact that [Russian Foreign Minister Sergey] Lavrov was very happy that he had a contact with Iran just before the attack was launched, shows that they are very much connected,” Tsahkna said.
“If we are losing the war in Ukraine, it’s just the green light for everybody, from China or Iran.” And that’s why “I’m hoping that this is encouraging us, as Western partners, to increase rapidly our support to Ukraine.”
Another EU diplomat said the Iran attack should focus minds on Europe’s own security — something that can still seem peculiarly theoretical in the EU despite two years of all-out war in Ukraine.
“Are we ready if Europe is attacked?” the diplomat asked. “The images of this attack on Israel make that question very live again, especially if Trump would not guarantee U.S. support anymore. This could also make the case for a more concentrated effort on defense capabilities.”
Ahead of the discussions by leaders on Wednesday evening, senior EU diplomats and officials were quick to issue assurances that Ukraine remains top of mind of European leaders, and is not going to be drowned out by Israel’s showdown with Iran.
Russian attacks on Ukraine “underscore the urgency of intensifying our delivery of military assistance, notably air defence capabilities,” European Council President Charles Michel said in his invitation letter to leaders.
The bloc is close to signing off on using most of the profits generated by Russia’s frozen assets to buy weapons for Ukraine.
Berlin agreed on Saturday to send a Patriot air-defense system to Ukraine, Chancellor Olaf Scholz said, but Berlin hasn’t relented on its refusal to provide Kyiv with Taurus cruise missiles — something for which it is being sharply criticized by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
However, the support initiatives for Kyiv are moving at a glacial pace while Russia advances on the battlefield.
For Ukrainians, it’s all fallen far short.
“The whole Western policy up till now has been to provide us with the weaponry and ammunition calculated to ensure Ukraine doesn’t lose, but not necessarily win,” said opposition lawmaker Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze.
Koen Verhelst contributed reporting from Brussels, Giorgio Leali from Paris, and Jamie Dettmer from Kyiv.